International Journal of

ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES

EISSN: 2313-3724, Print ISSN: 2313-626X

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 Volume 11, Issue 3 (March 2024), Pages: 192-219

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 Original Research Paper

A predictive strategy to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Saudi economy

 Author(s): 

 Badr Khalaf Aldhmadi 1, Youssef Mubrik Almutairi 2, Reda Ibrahim Elmelegy 3, Monia Mokhtar Ferchichi 3, *

 Affiliation(s):

 1Department of Health Management, College of Public Health and Health Informatics, University of Ha’il, Ha’il, Saudi Arabia
 2Department of Education, College of Education, University of Ha’il, Ha’il, Saudi Arabia
 3Department of Management Information Systems, Applied College, University of Ha’il, Ha’il, Saudi Arabia

 Full text

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 * Corresponding Author. 

  Corresponding author's ORCID profile: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-4619-4340

 Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

 https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2024.03.020

 Abstract

This study aimed to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Saudi Arabia's economy and to propose a strategy based on forecasting to lessen the negative effects of the pandemic while looking ahead to economic opportunities after the pandemic. The research utilized ARIMA models to predict important economic measures in Saudi Arabia, such as GDP, exports, imports, investment in assets, consumer spending, unemployment rates, inflation rates, and oil production, up to 2028, using the Box-Jenkins method. The results showed that the pandemic initially had a detrimental effect on the Saudi economy, with decreases in GDP, exports, and imports, as well as increases in unemployment and inflation. However, the study forecasts a positive recovery and growth in the economy after COVID-19. It recommends the adoption of a national policy to address the COVID-19 challenges, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive economic strategy to tackle the issues brought by the pandemic and to navigate the post-pandemic economic environment. This approach is in line with Vision 2030 and is intended to guide policymakers in developing and implementing strategies to reduce the pandemic's economic impact and support economic recovery.

 © 2024 The Authors. Published by IASE.

 This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

 Keywords

 COVID-19, Saudi Arabia economy, ARIMA models, Economic forecasting, Post-pandemic recovery

 Article history

 Received 30 October 2023, Received in revised form 3 March 2024, Accepted 8 March 2024

 Acknowledgment 

The researchers acknowledge the support of the Scientific Research Deanship, the University of Ha'il, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, for funding this research.

 Compliance with ethical standards

 Institutional review board statement

The research was conducted according to the guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki and approved by the Institutional Review Board (or Ethics Committee) of the University of Ha’il (protocol code 46123/5/41 and 19/9/41).

 Informed consent

Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study.

 Conflict of interest: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

 Citation:

 Aldhmadi BK, Almutairi YM, Elmelegy RI, and Ferchichi MM (2024). A predictive strategy to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Saudi economy. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 11(3): 192-219

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 Figures

 Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 6 Fig. 7 Fig. 8 Fig. 9 Fig. 10 Fig. 11 Fig. 12 Fig. 13 Fig. 14 Fig. 15 Fig. 16

 Tables

 Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 

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