International Journal of

ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES

EISSN: 2313-3724, Print ISSN: 2313-626X

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 Volume 11, Issue 10 (October 2024), Pages: 7-16

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 Original Research Paper

Long-term casual analysis of the energy-food price relationship

 Author(s): 

 Humaira Altaf Khan *, Fahim Raees, Mirza Mahmood Baig

 Affiliation(s):

 Department of Mathematics, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

 Full text

  Full Text - PDF

 * Corresponding Author. 

  Corresponding author's ORCID profile: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7578-3925

 Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

 https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2024.10.002

 Abstract

The energy price index is a key economic measure that tracks changes in the prices of energy commodities, such as petroleum, electricity, and gas. This study aims to explore how the energy price index influences the food price index, as both have significant impacts on the economy. The relationship between energy and food prices is complex and affected by various factors. The novelty of this research lies in identifying the time period during which increases in energy prices impact food prices due to inflation. A statistical approach is applied to investigate this effect, using data from Pakistan's energy and food price indices for the period between January 2019 and May 2023. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is employed to assess whether the time series is stationary, followed by the Granger causality test to determine if the energy price index can be used to predict changes in the food price index. The Engle-Granger cointegration test is used to identify long-term relationships between non-stationary time series. Additionally, various lag tests are conducted to determine the minimum time period within which changes in energy prices influence food prices. This research has practical implications for policymakers. Government agencies can use the findings to predict potential changes in food prices, and the study may also be relevant to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as shifts in food prices could directly or indirectly affect several SDGs.

 © 2024 The Authors. Published by IASE.

 This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

 Keywords

 Energy price index, Food price index, Granger causality test, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Cointegration test

 Article history

 Received 2 June 2024, Received in revised form 14 September 2024, Accepted 16 September 2024

 Acknowledgment

We are thankful to Almighty God for helping us touch this milestone. Also, thank you to the NED University of Engineering and Technology for providing us with the necessary resources to write this manuscript. And last but not least, to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) for providing all the useful information and data.

 Compliance with ethical standards

 Conflict of interest: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

 Citation:

 Khan HA, Raees F, and Baig MM (2024). Long-term casual analysis of the energy-food price relationship. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 11(10): 7-16

 Permanent Link to this page

 Figures

 Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 6 Fig. 7 Fig. 8 

 Tables

 Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 

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