International Journal of

ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES

EISSN: 2313-3724, Print ISSN: 2313-626X

Frequency: 12
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 Volume 10, Issue 5 (May 2023), Pages: 12-19

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 Original Research Paper

A comparison between the nonhomogeneous Poisson and α-series processes for estimating the machines’ fault time of thermal electricity generation

 Author(s): 

 Safar M. A. Alghamdi 1, *, Mohammedelameen E. Qurashi 2

 Affiliation(s):

 1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, Taif University, Taif, Saudi Arabia
 2Department of Statistics, College of Science, Sudan University of Science and Technology, Khartoum, Sudan

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 * Corresponding Author. 

  Corresponding author's ORCID profile: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6656-5344

 Digital Object Identifier: 

 https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2023.05.002

 Abstract:

This study aims to compare the stochastic process model designed as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and α-series process, to obtain a better process for using monotonous trend data. The α-series process is a stochastic process with a monotone trend, while the NHPP is a general process of the ordinary Poisson process and it is used as a model for a series of events that occur randomly over a variable period of time. Data on the daily fault time of machines in Bahrri Thermal Station in Sudan was analyzed during the interval from first January 2021, to July 31, 2021, to acquire the best stochastic process model used to analyze monotone trend data. The results revealed that the NHPP model could be the most suitable process model for the description of the daily fault time of machines in Bahrri Thermal Station according to lowest MSE, RMSE, Bias, MPE, and highest. The current study concluded that through the NHPP, the fault time of machines and repair rate occur in an inconsistent way. The further value of this study is that it compared NHPP and α-series to obtain a better process for using monotone trend data and prediction. Meanwhile, the other studies in this field focused on comparing methods of estimation parameters of the NHPP and the α-series process. The distinctive scientific addition of this study stems from displaying the precision of the NHPP better than the α-series process in the case of monotone trend data.

 © 2023 The Authors. Published by IASE.

 This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

 Keywords: α-series process, Nonhomogeneous Poisson process, Laplace test, Fault time, Reliability function, Hazard function

 Article History: Received 10 October 2022, Received in revised form 26 January 2023, Accepted 7 February 2023

 Acknowledgment 

We are grateful to the reviewers for their very helpful comments.

 Compliance with ethical standards

 Conflict of interest: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

 Citation:

 Alghamdi SMA and Qurashi ME (2023). A comparison between the nonhomogeneous Poisson and α-series processes for estimating the machines’ fault time of thermal electricity generation. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 10(5): 12-19

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 Figures

 Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 

 Tables

 Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 

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