International Journal of

ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES

EISSN: 2313-3724, Print ISSN: 2313-626X

Frequency: 12
line decor
  
line decor

 Volume 7, Issue 12 (December 2020), Pages: 105-112

----------------------------------------------

 Original Research Paper

 Title: Descriptive epidemiological analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

 Author(s): Hamid H. Hussien *

 Affiliation(s):

 Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Arts, King Abdulaziz University, Rabigh, Saudi Arabia

  Full Text - PDF          XML

 * Corresponding Author. 

  Corresponding author's ORCID profile: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5059-181X

 Digital Object Identifier: 

 https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2020.12.012

 Abstract:

At three months after the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, the number of infected cases and deaths are significantly greater than expected. This drastic increase in the number of new cases has unveiled remarkable deficiencies in the public health systems of most of the countries in the world. This paper aims to provide a descriptive epidemiological analysis of COVID-19 as of February 18, 2020, by estimating the magnitude of this disease in terms of Case fatality rate, reproduction number (R0), and the pattern of mortality as a function of time and place. Moreover, we compare the burden of Covid-19 with the burden of a virus outbreak previously occurred. The main finding is that the estimated R0 for COVID-19 is 3.52, which is considerably higher than that reported for SARS (range, 2–3), MERS-COV (<1), or Ebola (2.7) but a lower CFR. Globally, the CFR was stable during the study period, Feb 25–Apr 5, 2020, in the range of 3.43–4.92 with a mean value of 4.03. Both the USA and Europe have the highest number of cases and deaths. In contrast, in China, where the virus originated, great progress has been made with respect to disease control and lowering the caseload in a very short period. The number of cases and mortality due to COVID-19 has been hailed as one of the most remarkable public health deficiencies worldwide. Of course, CFR has its limitations as it tends to overestimate or underestimate the mortality risk of the disease. However, it can help us to better understand the severity of the disease as well as its progression and consequences on humans and healthcare resources. Hence, galvanize political support for ensuring adequate resources to overcome the consequences at the earliest possible. 

 © 2020 The Authors. Published by IASE.

 This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

 Keywords: Pandemic, COVID-19, Case fatality rate, Reproduction number, Disease outbreaks

 Article History: Received 24 May 2020, Received in revised form 29 July 2020, Accepted 7 August 2020

 Acknowledgment:

Thanks to Abdumageed Osman for helpful comments and for bibliographical support.

 Compliance with ethical standards

 Conflict of interest: The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

 Citation:

  Hussien HH (2020). Descriptive epidemiological analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 7(12): 105-112

 Permanent Link to this page

 Figures

 Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3

 Tables

 Table 1

----------------------------------------------

 References (43)

  1. Ball F, Pellis L, and Trapman P (2016). Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures II: Comparisons and implications for vaccination. Mathematical Biosciences, 274: 108-139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2016.01.006   [Google Scholar] PMid:26845663
  2. Barbarossa MV, Dénes A, Kiss G, Nakata Y, Röst G, and Vizi Z (2015). Transmission dynamics and final epidemic size of Ebola virus disease outbreaks with varying interventions. PloS One, 10(7): e0131398. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0131398   [Google Scholar] PMid:26197242 PMCid:PMC4510538
  3. Baud D, Qi X, Nielsen-Saines K, Musso D, Pomar L, and Favre G (2020). Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(7): 773. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30195-X   [Google Scholar]
  4. Burrell CJ, Howard CR, and Murphy FA (2016). Fenner and white's medical virology. Academic Press, Cambridge, USA.   [Google Scholar]
  5. Chen H, Guo J, Wang C, Luo F, Yu X, Zhang W, and Liao J (2020a). Clinical characteristics and intrauterine vertical transmission potential of COVID-19 infection in nine pregnant women: A retrospective review of medical records. The Lancet, 395(10226): 809-815. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30360-3   [Google Scholar]
  6. Chen TM, Rui J, Wang QP, Zhao ZY, Cui JA, and Yin L (2020b). A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus. Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 9(1): 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3   [Google Scholar] PMid:32111262 PMCid:PMC7047374
  7. Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, and Viboud C (2020). The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science, 368(6489): 395-400. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba9757   [Google Scholar] PMid:32144116 PMCid:PMC7164386
  8. Chowell G, Castillo-Chavez C, Fenimore PW, Kribs-Zaleta CM, Arriola L, and Hyman JM (2004). Model parameters and outbreak control for SARS. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 10(7): 1258–1263. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1007.030647   [Google Scholar] PMid:15324546 PMCid:PMC3323341
  9. CPMA (2020). An update on the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19). Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi, 41:139‐144. https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.02.002   [Google Scholar]
  10. Du Z, Xu X, Wu Y, Wang L, Cowling BJ, and Meyers LA (2020). Serial interval of COVID-19 among publicly reported confirmed cases. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(6); 1341-1343. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2606.200357   [Google Scholar] PMid:32191173 PMCid:PMC7258488
  11. ECDC (2020). COVID-19 coronavirus data. Available online at: https://bit.ly/2Zd3Ivv
  12. Hamid S, Mir MY, and Rohela GK (2020). Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A pandemic (Epidemiology, Pathogenesis and potential therapeutics). New Microbes and New Infections, 35: 100679. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nmni.2020.100679   [Google Scholar] PMid:32322401 PMCid:PMC7171518
  13. Jin Y, Yang H, Ji W, Wu W, Chen S, Zhang W, and Duan G (2020). Virology, epidemiology, pathogenesis, and control of COVID-19. Viruses, 12(4): 372. https://doi.org/10.3390/v12040372   [Google Scholar] PMid:32230900 PMCid:PMC7232198
  14. Jones JH (2007). Notes on R0. California: Department of Anthropological Sciences, 323: 1-19.   [Google Scholar]
  15. Keele BF, Van Heuverswyn F, Li Y, Bailes E, Takehisa J, Santiago ML, and Loul S (2006). Chimpanzee reservoirs of pandemic and nonpandemic HIV-1. Science, 313(5786): 523-526. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1126531   [Google Scholar] PMid:16728595 PMCid:PMC2442710
  16. Khan A, Hassan M, and Imran M (2014). Estimating the basic reproduction number for single-strain dengue fever epidemics. Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 3: 12. https://doi.org/10.1186/2049-9957-3-12   [Google Scholar] PMid:24708869 PMCid:PMC4021574
  17. Lau EH and Yip PS (2008). Estimating the basic reproductive number in the general epidemic model with an unknown initial number of susceptible individuals. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 35(4): 650-663. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9469.2008.00594.x   [Google Scholar]
  18. Li J, Blakeley D, and Smith RJ (2011). The failure of R0. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 2011: 527610.‏ https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/527610   [Google Scholar] PMid:21860658 PMCid:PMC3157160
  19. Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X et al. (2020). Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia. New England Journal of Medicine, ‏ 382: 1199-1207. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316   [Google Scholar]
  20. Ma Y, Diao B, Lv X et al. (2020). 2019 novel coronavirus disease in hemodialysis (HD) patients: Report from one HD center in Wuhan, China. MedRxiv Preprint. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027201   [Google Scholar]  
  21. MMWR (2020). Severe outcomes among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report Journal, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA, 69(12): 343-346. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6912e2   [Google Scholar] PMid:32214079
  22. Munster VJ, Koopmans M, van Doremalen N, van Riel D, and de Wit E (2020). A novel coronavirus emerging in China-Key questions for impact assessment. New England Journal of Medicine, 382(8): 692-694. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp2000929   [Google Scholar] PMid:31978293
  23. Naicker S, Yang CW, Hwang SJ, Liu BC, Chen JH, and Jha V (2020). The novel coronavirus 2019 epidemic and kidneys. Kidney International, 97(5): 824-828. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kint.2020.03.001   [Google Scholar] PMid:32204907 PMCid:PMC7133222
  24. Ntsekhe M and Hakim J (2005). Impact of human immunodeficiency virus infection on cardiovascular disease in Africa. Circulation, 112(23): 3602-3607. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.105.549220   [Google Scholar] PMid:16330702
  25. Pathak M, Patel SK, Rana J, Tiwari R, Dhama K, Sah R, and Rodriguez-Morales AJ (2020). Global threat of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 and the need for more and better diagnostic tools. Archives of Medical Research, 51(5): 450–452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.arcmed.2020.04.003   [Google Scholar] PMid:32331789 PMCid:PMC7158838
  26. Read JM, Bridgen JR, Cummings DA, Ho A, and Jewell CP (2020). Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549   [Google Scholar]
  27. Sanche S, Lin YT, Xu C, Romero-Severson E, Hengartner N, and Ke R (2020). Early release-high contagiousness and rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26: 1470-1477. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200282   [Google Scholar] PMid:32255761 PMCid:PMC7323562
  28. Schicker RS, Rossow J, Eckel S, Fisher N, Bidol S, Tatham L, and Forshey T (2016). Outbreak of influenza A (H3N2) variant virus infections among persons attending agricultural fairs housing infected swine—Michigan and Ohio, July–August 2016. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 65(42): 1157-1160. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6542a1   [Google Scholar] PMid:27787493
  29. Seto WH, Tsang D, Yung RWH, Ching TY, Ng TK, Ho M, and Advisors of Expert SARS group of Hospital Authority (2003). Effectiveness of precautions against droplets and contact in prevention of nosocomial transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The Lancet, 361(9368): 1519-1520. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13168-6   [Google Scholar]
  30. Shutt DP, Manore CA, Pankavich S, Porter AT, and Del Valle SY (2017). Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America. Epidemics, 21: 63-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.06.005   [Google Scholar] PMid:28803069
  31. Surveillances V (2020). The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19)-China, 2020. China CDC Weekly, 2(8): 113-122. https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2020.032   [Google Scholar]
  32. Venkatesh S and Memish ZA (2004). SARS: The new challenge to international health and travel medicine. EMHJ-Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal, 10(4-5): 655-662.   [Google Scholar]
  33. Weeks JR (2020). Population: An introduction to concepts and issues. Cengage Learning, Boston, USA.   [Google Scholar]
  34. WHO (2014a). Ebola virus disease: Fact sheet. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.   [Google Scholar]
  35. WHO (2014b). Ebola virus disease in West Africa-The first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. New England Journal of Medicine, 371(16): 1481-1495. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100   [Google Scholar] PMid:25244186 PMCid:PMC4235004
  36. WHO (2017). WHO MERS-CoV global summary and assessment of risk. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.   [Google Scholar]
  37. Wilder SA, Chiew CJ, and Lee VJ (2020). Can we contain the COVID-19 outbreak with the same measures as for SARS? The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(5): 102-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30129-8   [Google Scholar]
  38. Wilson ME and Chen LH (2020). Travellers give wings to novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Journal of Travel Medicine, 27(2): 1-3. https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa015   [Google Scholar] PMid:32010938 PMCid:PMC7107561
  39. Wilson N, Kvalsvig A, Barnard LT, and Baker MG (2020). Case-fatality risk estimates for COVID-19 calculated by using a lag time for fatality. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(6): 1339-1441. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2606.200320   [Google Scholar]
  40. Wu JT, Leung K, and Leung GM (2020). Now casting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: A modelling study. The Lancet, 395(10225): 689-697. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9   [Google Scholar]
  41. Zhao S, Lin Q, Ran J, Musa SS, Yang G, Wang W, and Wang MH (2020). Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 92: 214-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050   [Google Scholar] PMid:32007643 PMCid:PMC7110798
  42. Zhou G and Yan G (2003). Severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in Asia. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 9(12): 1608-1610.   [Google Scholar]
  43. Zhou T, Liu Q, Yang Z, Liao J, Yang K, Bai W, and Zhang W (2020). Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019‐nCoV. Journal of Evidence‐Based Medicine, 13(1): 3-7. https://doi.org/10.1111/jebm.12376   [Google Scholar] PMid:32048815 PMCid:PMC7167008